The Data Modeling and Scenario Development Team is setting up the GIS-based tools that will be used to study alternative futures.  Our goal is to present information in a people-friendly way that will help stakeholders and the public make informed decisions.

Our team of modeling experts from all over the country has been having formal conference calls once a month since December, with lots of work going on in between.  So far we have made good progress on designing our overall approach and collecting GIS and other data we will need.  Our next step is going to be setting up a trial analysis with data from a small sample area to ensure everything works before we start analyzing the entire region.

Our analysis will be using CommunityViz software to create hypothetical scenarios, organize information, and form a framework for collaboration and discussion.  The software gives us maps, graphs, 3-D models and other tools for easily presenting information and shows the effects of different decisions on the region's future building and growth.

We will plug in additional science and planning models to tell us important information about particular topics like coastal hazards (HAZUS and SLOSH), sea level rise, and habitat protection (NatureServe Vista and The Nature Conservancy's eco-regional assessment).

A big part of our work is centered on applying the methodology of NOAA-CSC's "Community Vulnerability Assessment Tool" (CVAT) in the context of CommunityViz.  Following CVAT's model, we will identify and weight hazards (like storm surge and erosion) and assets (like housing, roads, and habitat), and then overlay them to find areas of vulnerability.  We will then be able to compare scenarios and look at mitigation steps that could be taken.